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农产品流通数字化与农村共同富裕耦合协调研究:动态演进特征与障碍因素

Coupled coordination of digitalization in agricultural product circulation and rural common prosperity: dynamic evolution and obstacle factors

  • 摘要: 农产品流通数字化是实现农村共同富裕的重要驱动力,本文基于2010—2023年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建农产品流通数字化与农村共同富裕两大系统的综合指标体系,并运用耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、Markov链、β收敛检验及障碍因子诊断模型,系统考察了两系统协同发展的时空特征、区域差异、动态演进及关键制约因素。研究发现:1)全国耦合协调水平总体提升,但呈现显著区域梯度与阶段性分化特征,东部长期领先且内部差异扩大,中西部在低位改善的同时仍存在结构性约束。2)耦合协调演进具有明显空间依赖:邻近高水平地区对本地提升具有带动效应,同时存在“俱乐部趋同”与“路径锁定”并存的现象,显示区域协同提升并非自动扩散。3)障碍因素发生阶段性转换:协同提升的关键约束由前期的数字可达性与信息基础短板、以及脱贫成效等因素,逐步转向中后期的公共服务供给与保障约束。4)发展建议方面,应坚持分区施策与要素协同,优先补齐欠发达地区物流与数字基础设施短板,促进平台能力扩散与公共投入精准配置,缩小区域数字鸿沟,提升数字红利的普惠性与共享性。

     

    Abstract: Digitalization of agricultural product circulation is an important driving force for achieving rural common prosperity. Based on panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2023, this study constructs comprehensive indicator systems for the digitalization of agricultural product circulation and rural common prosperity, and employs the coupling coordination degree model, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, Markov chains, β-convergence tests, and an obstacle factor diagnostic model to systematically examine the spatiotemporal characteristics, regional disparities, dynamic evolution, and key constraints of their coordinated development. The results indicate that: 1) the national coupling coordination level has generally improved, but it exhibits a pronounced regional gradient and phased differentiation. The eastern region has long maintained a leading position, with widening intraregional disparities, while the central and western regions have improved from a relatively low base yet continue to face structural constraints. 2) The evolution of coupling coordination shows significant spatial dependence. Proximity to high-level regions increases the likelihood of local upgrading. At the same time, club convergence coexists with path dependence, suggesting that regional coordinated improvement does not spread automatically. 3) Obstacle factors have undergone a staged transition. The key constraints on coordinated improvement have gradually shifted from early limitations in digital accessibility, information infrastructure, and poverty alleviation outcomes to constraints in public service provision and social security in the middle and later stages. 4) With regard to policy implications, differentiated regional strategies and coordinated factor allocation should be implemented. Priority should be given to strengthening logistics and digital infrastructure in less-developed areas, promoting the diffusion of platform capabilities, and improving the precision and effectiveness of public investment, thereby narrowing the regional digital divide and enhancing the inclusiveness and shared benefits of the digital dividend.

     

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