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数字经济对农业产业链韧性的影响效应与作用路径

The impacts and mechanisms of the digital economy on the resilience of the agricultural industry chain

  • 摘要: 全面持续增强农业产业链韧性,是建设农业强国目标的基础保障。本文基于2013—2023年中国30个省份(不包括西藏和港澳台)的面板数据,测算数字经济与农业产业链韧性,并采用双向固定效应、中介效应和双重差分模型,实证检验数字经济对农业产业链韧性的影响效应及作用路径。研究结果表明:1)数字经济对农业产业链韧性具有显著正向影响,并在多项稳健性检验后仍成立。2)机制分析表明,数字经济通过优化创新要素配置、推动农业产业集聚和引导产业结构升级,间接驱动农业产业链韧性增强。3)异质性分析显示,数字经济对农业产业链韧性的增强作用具有明显的区域和阶段差异,在粮食主产区、主销区以及数实融合协同阶段,数字经济的赋能效果更为显著。基于此,建议统筹推进数字基础设施建设,加快建设创新驱动、要素集聚和产业升级的农业全产业链新发展格局,因地制宜发挥各区域比较优势,充分释放数字经济对农业产业链韧性的赋能作用。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industry chain in a comprehensive and sustained manner is a fundamental prerequisite for achieving the goal of building a strong agricultural nation. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2013 to 2023, this paper constructs measurements of the digital economy and agricultural industry chain resilience, and employs the two-way fixed effects models, mediation analysis, and difference-in-differences (DID) models to empirically examine the impacts and underlying mechanisms of the digital economy on agricultural industry chain resilience. Results reveal that: 1) the digital economy exerts a significant and robust positive effect on the resilience of the agricultural industry chain, which remains valid under various robustness checks; 2) mechanism analysis indicates that the digital economy enhances resilience indirectly by optimizing the allocation of innovation factors, promoting agricultural industrial agglomeration, and facilitating industrial structure upgrading; and 3) heterogeneity analysis shows clear regional and developmental phase differences, with the resilience-enhancing effect of the digital economy being more pronounced in major grain-producing and major grain-consuming areas, as well as during stages of deep integration between digital and real economies. Based on these findings, the study recommends a coordinated approach that advances digital infrastructure development, accelerating the construction of an innovation-driven, factor-aggregated, and fully upgraded agricultural industry chain, and leverages regional comparative advantages to fully unlock the empowering potential of the digital economy in strengthening agricultural industry chain resilience.

     

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