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人工智能赋能农业经济韧性:影响机制与空间溢出效应

Artificial intelligence and agricultural economic resilience: mechanisms of impact and spatial spillover effects

  • 摘要: 作为新一轮科技革命的核心驱动力,人工智能为破解农业发展瓶颈、提升农业系统抗风险能力提供了关键支撑,但其对农业经济韧性的作用机制及空间传导规律尚不明确。基于2011—2023年中国30个省份(不含西藏和港澳台)的面板数据,本文采用熵值法量化农业经济韧性水平,并结合面板回归模型、中介效应模型和空间面板模型,系统分析人工智能对农业经济韧性的影响机制及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:1)人工智能显著提升农业经济韧性,该结论在内生性处理和稳健性检验后依然成立;2)人工智能既能直接增强农业经济韧性,又可通过降低劳动力密度、提高资本劳动比及优化要素配置效率三条路径实现间接赋能;3)人工智能的赋能作用存在异质性,在东部地区、粮食主产区、高数字基础设施水平及农村高老龄化区域表现更为显著;4)人工智能对农业经济韧性的提升具有显著空间溢出效应,可突破地理边界进行跨区域传导,带动周边地区农业系统协同增强韧性。基于上述发现,建议搭建全链条赋能体系、锚定间接赋能路径、完善差异化政策、强化跨区域协同,全面释放人工智能赋能潜力。

     

    Abstract: As a core driving force of the new round of technological revolution, artificial intelligence provides essential support for addressing the bottlenecks of agricultural development and strengthening the risk resistance of agricultural systems. However, its mechanisms of influence on agricultural economic resilience and its spatial transmission patterns remain insufficiently understood. Based on panel data for 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2011 to 2023 (excluding Xizang and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), this study measures agricultural economic resilience using the entropy method and employs panel regression models, mediation effect models, and spatial panel models to systematically examine the impact mechanisms of artificial intelligence on agricultural economic resilience and its spatial spillover effects. The results show that: 1) artificial intelligence significantly enhances agricultural economic resilience, and this finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting robustness tests; 2) artificial intelligence strengthens agricultural economic resilience both directly and indirectly through three pathways, including reducing labor density, increasing the capital–labor ratio, and improving factor allocation efficiency; 3) the empowering effect of artificial intelligence is heterogeneous and is more pronounced in eastern regions, major grain-producing areas, areas with high levels of digital infrastructure, and rural areas with high aging populations; 4) artificial intelligence generates significant spatial spillover effects that transcend geographical boundaries, facilitating cross regional transmission and advancing the coordinated improvement of resilience in surrounding agricultural systems. Based on these findings, it is recommended to build a full chain empowerment system, utilize indirect empowerment pathways, improve differentiated policies, and strengthen cross regional collaboration to fully unlock the potential of artificial intelligence in enhancing agricultural economic resilience.

     

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