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黄河流域县域“人-地-业”协调发展框架下城乡融合时空格局与影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of urban-rural integration in counties of the Yellow River Basin under a human-land-industry coordinated development framework

  • 摘要: 县域城乡融合发展是破解城乡二元结构、激活县域经济活力、促进城乡要素双向流动与公共服务均等化的关键抓手,对推动区域协调发展与共同富裕具有重要战略意义。本文以黄河流域431个县域为研究对象,基于2012—2023年面板数据,采用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数与地理探测器的方法综合分析黄河流域县域城乡融合发展水平时空演化及驱动因素。结果表明:1)黄河流域县域城乡融合发展水平总体呈上升趋势,但存在显著的异质性,空间上呈现出“下游>中游>上游”的梯度分布特征。2)区域总体差异在2012—2020年间呈收敛态势,2020—2023年由于内部发展动能分化而急剧扩大,且“组间差异”主导作用逐步减弱,“组内差异”贡献率逐年增加。同时城乡融合的空间集聚效应显著减弱。3)地理探测器结果显示,人口规模与政府支持是县域城乡融合发展的核心驱动因子,各因子间的交互作用均呈现双因子增强的特征,尤其是人口规模作为关键因子,能显著放大其他因子的作用。因此,要依据县域“人—地—业”协调发展这一关键着力点,针对性分类施策,整体推进黄河流域城乡融合。

     

    Abstract: County-level urban-rural integrated development is a crucial approach for breaking the dual urban-rural structure, revitalizing rural economy, promoting the two-way flow of factors between urban and rural areas, and achieving equal access to public services. It holds significant strategic importance for fostering regional coordinated development and common prosperity. This study examines 431 county-level cities in the Yellow River Basin, utilizing a panel data from 2012 to 2023 and applies the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, Moran’s I, and geographical detector to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of urban-rural integrated development at the county level in the region. Results show that: 1) The overall level of urban-rural integrated development in the Yellow River Basin shows an upward trend, yet significant heterogeneity exists, with a spatial distribution characterized by a “lower reach > middle reach > upper reach” gradient; 2) The overall regional disparity exhibited a converging trend from 2012 to 2020, but widened sharply from 2020 to 2023 due to diverging internal development dynamics. The dominant role of “between-group differences” gradually weakened, while the contribution of “within-group differences” increased annually. Additionally, the spatial agglomeration effect of urban-rural integration significantly declined; and 3) Geographical detector results indicate that population size and government support are the core driving factors of county-level urban-rural integrated development. The interactions between these factors exhibit a two-factor enhancement effect, with population size, in particular, serving as a key factor that significantly amplifies the effects of other factors. Therefore, to holistically advance urban-rural integration in the Yellow River Basin, this paper suggests implementing targeted and categorized measures based on the coordinated development of “people-land-industry” at the county level as the key focal point.

     

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