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数字技术对农业可持续发展的影响基于空间溢出效应与门槛效应分析

Impact of digital technology on agricultural sustainable development: Based on spatial spillover impact and threshold effect

  • 摘要: 探究数字技术对农业可持续发展的影响机制与空间效应,可为优化数字技术赋能农业的政策设计提供科学依据。基于2013—2022年30个省份(不包含港澳台地区和西藏)的面板数据,测度了数字技术发展指数与农业可持续发展指数,并采用基准回归模型、双向固定效应空间杜宾模型及门槛效应模型对数字技术对农业可持续发展的影响进行了实证分析。研究发现:1)数字技术对农业可持续发展具有促进作用。2)数字技术在提高本地区的农业可持续发展水平的同时,在空间上有着显著的负向空间溢出效应,也就是“虹吸效应”。3)数字技术对不同地区农业可持续发展的影响存在区域异质性,东部地区数字技术发展对农业可持续发展水平的促进效果显著。4)数字普惠金融、环境规制强度在数字技术促进农业可持续发展中具有单门槛效应,且二者具有协同效应。基于上述结果,建议中央和地方政府采取差异化数字技术赋能策略;规避数字技术虹吸效应;优化数字普惠金融与环境规制的政策协同。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the influence mechanism and spatial effect of digital technology on the sustainable development of agriculture can provide a scientific basis for optimizing the policy design of digital technology-enabled agriculture. Based on provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Xizang), the development index of digital technology and the index of agricultural sustainable development were measured, the benchmark regression model, the two-way fixed effect spatial Durbin model and the threshold effect model were adopted to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of digital technology on agricultural sustainable development. The research findings are as follows: 1) Digital technology has a promoting effect on the sustainable development of agriculture. 2) While improving the level of agricultural sustainable development in the local area, digital technology has a significant negative spatial spillover effect in space, that is, the “siphon effect”. 3) Regional heterogeneity exists in the impact of digital technology on agricultural sustainable development. The development of digital technology in the eastern region has a significant effect on the level of agricultural sustainable development. 4) Digital inclusive finance and environmental regulation intensity have a single threshold effect in digital technology promoting agricultural sustainable development, and they have a synergistic effect. Based on the above results, it is recommended that the central and local governments adopt differentiated strategies for empowering with digital technology; avoid the siphon effect of digital technology; and optimize the policy coordination between digital inclusive finance and environmental regulation.

     

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