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气候变化视角下中国农产品供应链韧性评价、区域差异及影响因素

Resilience evaluation, reginal disparities, and influencing factors of China’s agricultural product supply chains under climate change

  • 摘要: 面对不确定的气候灾害,唯有发展气候韧性农业,才能保障重要农产品的稳定供给,故提升农产品供应链韧性至关重要。基于气候变化视角,本文构建农产品供应链韧性评价指标体系,采用Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、马尔可夫链分析等方法,对2011—2023年间中国农产品供应链韧性进行分析。研究结果表明:样本期内中国农产品供应链韧性呈现稳步上升趋势,但年均增长速度差距较大;中国农产品供应链韧性的总体差异呈现下降趋势,造成总体差异变化的原因主要是区域内差异;中国农产品供应链韧性呈现明显的“俱乐部收敛”特征,其演变不仅受到空间邻近效应的影响,还与原有韧性等级密切相关;气候变化、农村劳动力外流、城镇化会降低农产品供应链韧性,而农产品交易有助于提升农产品供应链韧性。最后,本文从提升我国农产品供应链抵抗风险能力、灵活适应能力和恢复发展能力,各气候区应实施差异化发展策略,积极应对气候变化,促进适应气候变化的农业发展等方面提出建议。

     

    Abstract: Facing the uncertainty of climate-related disasters, developing climate-resilient agriculture is the only way to ensure the stable supply of key agricultural products. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of agricultural product supply chains is crucial. From the perspective of climate change, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the resilience of agricultural product supply chains and employs the Kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the Markov chain analysis methods to analyze the resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chains from 2011 to 2023. Results show that: during the sample period, the resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chain shows a steady upward trend, but the average annual growth rate varies significantly; the overall disparity in resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chains has decreased, with regional disparities being the main cause of this change; China’s agricultural product supply chain resilience exhibits a clear “club convergence” characteristic, where the evolution of resilience is not only influenced by spatial proximity but also closely linked to the original resilience level; climate change, rural labor migration, and urbanization reduce the resilience of agricultural product supply chains, while agricultural product trade contributes to improving resilience. Finally, this study provides the following recommendations for enhancing the risk resistance, adaptive capacity, and recovery capabilities of agricultural product supply chains in China: implementing differentiated development strategies in each climate zone, actively responding to climate change, and promoting agricultural development that is adapted to climate change.

     

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