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新农保参与如何影响老年农户生计韧性:理论机制与实证检验

Participation in the New Rural Pension Insurance and livelihood resilience of elderly farmers: mechanisms and evidence from China

  • 摘要: 随着农村老龄化加剧和农村社会保障体系的不断完善,新型农村社会养老保险制度(新农保)成为保障老年农户生活、促进农村可持续发展的重要制度安排。本文基于2014—2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,旨在探讨新农保对老年农户家庭生计韧性的影响,为构建稳定脱贫长效机制和全面推进乡村振兴提供决策参考。采用全排列多边形图示指标法测算农村老年家庭生计韧性,结合倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和中介效应模型,实证分析新农保的作用及其机制。结果表明:1)新农保参与显著提升老年农户家庭的生计韧性;2)农业经营性资本投入、文娱保健消费和非农就业是新农保增强生计韧性的关键传导机制;3)异质性分析表明,新农保对采取工资收入型、兼业均衡型生计策略及户主受教育水平较低家庭的生计韧性提升效果更为显著;4)新农保促进老年农户由传统务农型向多元化生计策略转变,有效降低了对补贴的依赖。研究强调,应通过差异化养老金政策提升新农保保障水平,充分发挥其促进农村家庭可持续发展的作用。

     

    Abstract: With the intensification of rural aging and the continuous improvement of China’s rural social security system, the New Rural Pension Insurance (NRPI) has become a vital institutional arrangement for ensuring the well-being of elderly farmers and promoting the sustainable development of rural areas. Based on data from the 2014–2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study aims to examine the impact of NRPI on the livelihood resilience of elderly farmers, offering policy insights for establishing a long-term mechanism for stable poverty alleviation and advancing rural revitalization. The livelihood resilience of elderly farmers is measured using the entire-array-polygon indicator method, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) along with mediation effect models are employed to empirically analyze the impact of NRPI and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that: 1) participation in NRPI significantly improves the livelihood resilience of elderly farmers; 2) agricultural capital investment, recreational and healthcare consumption, and non-farm employment are important transmission mechanisms through which NRPI enhances livelihood resilience; 3) heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effects of NRPI are more significant for households adopting wage-oriented or balanced livelihood strategies, and for those with less-educated household heads; 4) NRPI facilitates a shift among elderly farmers from traditional farming-dominated livelihoods to more diversified strategies, significantly reducing their dependence on subsidies. These findings underscore the importance of improving the protection level of NRPI through differentiated pension policies to fully realize its role in promoting the sustainable development of rural households.

     

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