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城市群粮食保障能力时空演变与圈层识别

Spatiotemporal evolution and hierarchical delineation of grain security capacity in urban agglomerations

  • 摘要: 由于土地非农化与人口高度集聚,城市群粮食安全保障对于社会经济稳定发展具有重要意义。基于2000—2022年我国17个城市群的229个地级市数据,测算了粮食供需缺口与粮食流动性势能联系。采用核密度分析与标准差椭圆方法,将城市群粮食保障类型划分为四种类型。结果表明:1)2022年我国17个城市群的粮食保障能力由强至弱依次为哈长、中原、呼包鄂榆、京津冀、长江中游、成渝、山东半岛、关中平原、辽中南、滇中、晋中、黔中、兰西、北部湾、长三角、海峡西岸、珠三角城市群。2)成渝城市群的重庆市、哈长城市群的哈尔滨市受到自然资源禀赋等因素影响,成为城市群粮食供给主要城市。3)其余城市群在人口空间集聚与产业结构调整下,城市群粮食供给区向边缘移动,京津冀、关中平原、滇中、黔中、晋中城市群呈现单中心圈层结构,长江中游、珠三角、兰西、呼包鄂榆城市群呈现多中心圈层结构,长三角、山东半岛、北部湾、海峡西岸、辽中南、中原城市群呈现带区状圈层结构。据此,针对四种类型城市群通过差异化的粮食产业布局、流通体系优化与跨区协作机制,构建与空间结构相适应的城市群粮食安全治理体系。

     

    Abstract: Due to the non-agricultural use of land and high population concentration, ensuring grain security in urban agglomerations is of great significance for the stable socio-economic development. Based on data from 229 prefecture-level cities in 17 urban agglomerations in China from 2000 to 2022, this study calculates the grain supply-demand gap and its link to grain flow potential, and classifies urban agglomeration grain security types into four categories using kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse methods. The study indicates that: 1) In 2022, the grain security capacity of 17 urban agglomerations ranked from strongest to weakest as follows: Harbin-Changchun, Central Plains, Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Middle Yangtze, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong Peninsula, Guanzhong Plain, Central-Southern Liaoning, Central Yunnan, Central Shanxi, Central Guizhou, Lanxi, Beibu Gulf, Yangtze River Delta, West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations; 2) Chongqing in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and Harbin in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration, influenced by factors such as natural resource endowment, have become the main cities supplying grain in their respective urban agglomerations; And 3) In other urban agglomerations, under the influence of population spatial concentration and industrial restructuring, the grain supply areas are shifting toward the periphery. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guanzhong Plain, Central Yunnan, Central Guizhou, and Central Shanxi urban agglomerations exhibit a single-center concentric structure; the Middle Yangtze, Pearl River Delta, Lanxi, and Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomerations display a multi-center concentric structure; while the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong Peninsula, Beibu Gulf, West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, Central-Southern Liaoning, and Central Plains urban agglomerations show a belt-like concentric structure. Accordingly, for the four types of urban agglomerations, a grain security governance system adapted to the spatial structure should be established through differentiated grain industry layouts, optimized circulation systems, and interregional collaboration mechanisms.

     

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