农业现代化与城乡融合的耦合协调和驱动因素
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中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所

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中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2021-06, G20210152)


Coupling coordination and the driving factors of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration
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Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

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Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (ASTIP-IAED-2021-06, G20210152).

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    摘要:

    农业现代化与城乡融合的耦合协调有助于推动城乡要素的双向流动,构建新型城乡关系。基于农业现代化与城乡融合指标体系,运用组合赋权法测度我国2004—2018年省域农业现代化和城乡融合指数,利用耦合协调度模型定量分析二者的耦合协调关系,借助地理探测器探究驱动二者耦合协调的主导因子和交互因子。结果表明,我国省域农业现代化空间布局呈现“梯次递减、东西分化、中心极化”的特点,省域城乡融合空间布局呈现“三极驱动、断层分化、整体偏低”的特征,二者耦合协调度从轻度失调迈进勉强协调,空间上呈现出“东部高西南低”的层级递减特征。二元对比系数、城镇化率、城乡义务教育投入比、城乡失业保险率、城乡居民收入比、非农与农业从业比、农业电气化是驱动农业现代化与城乡融合耦合协调的主导因子,优化产业结构、构建现代农业经济体系与其他系统的交互作用会增强两者的耦合协调,但促进东部、中部、西部和东北地区农业现代化与城乡融合耦合协调的主导因素存在异质性和阶段性。因此应从优化产业结构、构建现代农业经济体系和推进城乡公共服务均等化等方面着手,差异化推进区域农业现代化与城乡融合耦合协调。

    Abstract:

    The coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration can promote the two-way flows of urban and rural elements and build a new urban-rural relationship. Based on the indicator system of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration and the combined weighting method, this paper calculated agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration indexes of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2004 to 2018 in China, and quantitatively analyzed the coupling relationship of the two systems by the coupling coordination degree model. In addition, this paper further explored the dominant and interaction factors driving the coupling and coordination of two systems by Geodetector. Results show that the spatial layout of provincial agricultural modernization presents the characteristics of “declining echelon, east-west differentiation, and central polarization”, and the spatial layout of provincial urban-rural integration presents the characteristics of “three-pole driving, discontinuously differentiation, and overall low”. The degree of the coupling and coordination between the two systems has been improved from a mild imbalance to a barely coordination, showing a declining characteristic of “high in the east and low in the southwest” in space. Leading factors like the dual contrast coefficient, urbanization rate, urban-rural compulsory education investment ratio, urban-rural unemployment insurance rate, urban-rural income ratio, non-agricultural and agricultural employment ratio, and agricultural electrification are driving the coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration. The interaction between industrial structure optimization and other sub-systems will enhance the coupling and coordination as well as the construction of modern agricultural economic system, but the leading factors that promote the coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions show heterogeneous and periodic changes. Therefore, to enhance the coupling and coordination of regional agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration, this paper provides the following suggestions: optimizing the industrial structure, building a modern agricultural economic system, and promoting the equalization of urban and rural public services.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-04-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-07-13
  • 录用日期:2021-07-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-23
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