Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (ASTIP-IAED-2021-06, G20210152).
The coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration can promote the two-way flows of urban and rural elements and build a new urban-rural relationship. Based on the indicator system of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration and the combined weighting method, this paper calculated agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration indexes of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2004 to 2018 in China, and quantitatively analyzed the coupling relationship of the two systems by the coupling coordination degree model. In addition, this paper further explored the dominant and interaction factors driving the coupling and coordination of two systems by Geodetector. Results show that the spatial layout of provincial agricultural modernization presents the characteristics of “declining echelon, east-west differentiation, and central polarization”, and the spatial layout of provincial urban-rural integration presents the characteristics of “three-pole driving, discontinuously differentiation, and overall low”. The degree of the coupling and coordination between the two systems has been improved from a mild imbalance to a barely coordination, showing a declining characteristic of “high in the east and low in the southwest” in space. Leading factors like the dual contrast coefficient, urbanization rate, urban-rural compulsory education investment ratio, urban-rural unemployment insurance rate, urban-rural income ratio, non-agricultural and agricultural employment ratio, and agricultural electrification are driving the coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration. The interaction between industrial structure optimization and other sub-systems will enhance the coupling and coordination as well as the construction of modern agricultural economic system, but the leading factors that promote the coupling and coordination of agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions show heterogeneous and periodic changes. Therefore, to enhance the coupling and coordination of regional agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration, this paper provides the following suggestions: optimizing the industrial structure, building a modern agricultural economic system, and promoting the equalization of urban and rural public services.