Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
National Natural Science Foundation of China (7191101138; 71703157); Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (ASTIP-IAED-2021-06); Fundamental Research Funds for Central Non-profit Scientific Institution (161005202004-2-2)
“一带一路”沿线国家是世界重要粮食产区且粮食增产潜力巨大，基于全球农业生态区（GAEZ）模型的估算结果表明，“一带一路”沿线国家以2018年为参照期的粮食增产潜力约为5.38 亿~5.61 亿t；“一带一路”沿线国家也是世界小麦和稻米等粮食主要出口市场，近年来粮食产需呈现明显盈余状态，出口潜力很大。中国加强利用“一带一路”沿线国家粮食市场与资源，有利于推动粮食进口来源多元化，降低国际粮食市场利用风险；有利于提升沿线国家粮食安全保障能力，增加国际粮食市场总供给，降低中国粮食进口成本；有利于构建中国自己的全球粮食供应链渠道和国际粮食循环；有助于推动世界粮食安全治理向更有利于发展中国家的方向转变。中国今后应进一步加强与“一带一路”沿线国家在粮食贸易领域的互利共赢合作，推动区域内粮食物流基础设施建设，强化区域粮食贸易便利化机制建设，共同维护多边国际粮食贸易规则与秩序。
The countries along the “One-Belt and One-Road” are important grain producing areas in the world and have great potential to increase grain production. Accoding to the estimation results based on the GAEZ model, taking 2018 as the reference period, the potential for increased grain production in countries along the “One-Belt and One- Road” is about between 538 million to 561 million tons. The countries along the “One-Belt and One-Road” are also major exporters of wheat and rice with great grain export potential, too. China’s increased utilization of grain markets and resources in countries along the “One-Belt and One-Road” helps China to diversify the sources of grain import to reduce the risks of international grain market utilization. In addition, it can also improves grain security of countries along the “One-Belt and One-Road”, increases the total supply of international grain markets to reduce the cost of China’s grain import, to build China’s own global grain supply chain channels and international grain cycle, and to promote a shift in world grain security governance to a more favourable direction for developing countries. In the future, China’s governmant should further strengthen mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation with countries along the “One-Belt and One-Road” in the field of grain trade, promote the construction of regional grain logistics infrastructure, strengthen the construction of facilitation mechanism for regional grain trade, and jointly safeguard the multilateral international grain trade rules and order.
孙致陆,张德凤. 新形势下中国加强利用“一带一路”沿线国家粮食市场与资源研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2021, 42(5): 827-839
SUN Zhi-lu, ZHANG De-feng. China’s increased utilization of grain markets and resources in countries along the“ One-Belt and One-Road” under the new situation[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2021, 42(5): 827-839