偏向性技术变迁与中国粮食增长路径转型——基于1978—2018年玉米主产省的实证
作者:
作者单位:

1.贵州大学经济学院;2.贵州师范学院商学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71963005、72063003);贵州大学创新基金(CJ201936)


Biased technological change and transformation of China’s Grain growth path: An empirical case study of corn production provinces from 1978 to 2018
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Economics, Guizhou University;2.School of Business, Guizhou Normal University

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (71963005, 72063003); Innovation Project of Guizhou University (CJ201936)

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    摘要:

    资源禀赋变化和诱致性农业技术变迁共同决定了中国粮食增长的现实路径。以玉米为对象,采用超越对数生产函数和1978—2018年省级面板数据,系统考察了农业劳动价格持续上涨背景下中国粮食生产的要素替代弹性,判断其是否发生劳动节约型的诱致性技术变迁,并利用单要素生产率与二维相图探究中国粮食增长路径转型。结果表明:中国玉米生产表现出明显的劳动节约倾向,东北、黄淮海与西部三大产区的机械-劳动替代弹性存在差异,但这种差异正在缩小并逐渐趋同;中国玉米增长路径在21世纪初发生了历史性转型,由土地生产率导向转向劳动生产率导向。因土地—劳动比率优化未有突破,中国走的是依靠提升土地生产率推动劳动生产率增长的第三类路径,这对今后如何进一步提升粮食生产率有重要启示。结论的现实价值在于,既要因地制宜推动农业机械化技术的推广,包括加强适宜山地的农机具研发,推进丘陵山地耕地的宜机化改造,大力发展农机社会化服务;也要协调发展土地节约型技术,如良种培育与推广、病虫害绿色防控、肥药减量化高效化等生物化学技术进步。

    Abstract:

    The growth path of China’s grain production is determined by agricultural factor endowment change and induced technology change. Based on the 1978—2018 provincal panel data of corn production, this paper studies the changes of factors’ substitution elasticities and identifies whether it has happened labour-saving induced technological change by a logarithm production function. Furtherly, this paper aalso explores the growth path of China’s corn production by the method of single factor productivity and two-dimensional phase diagram. China’s corn production appears to have an obvious tendency of labor saving with regional difference of elasticities of mechanical-labor substitution among Northeast China, Huang-Huai-Hai region, and Western China; while the development trend of its elasticity is cornverging. The growth path of China’s corn production has undergone a historic transformation from land productivity orientation to labor productivity orientation since the 21st century. It is consistant with the third path of replying on improving land productivity to promote labor productivity growth. The implications of the conclusion lie in that it is necessary to promote agricultural mechanization according to local conditions, including strengthening the research of agricultural machinery suitable for mountainous areas, promoting cultivated land suitable for mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas, and developing socialized services of agricultural machinery. At the same time, it is necessary to develop land-saving technologies, including improved seed cultivation, green control of diseases and pests, fertilizer and pestcide reduction, and other biochemical technological progress.

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张琪,朱满德,刘超. 偏向性技术变迁与中国粮食增长路径转型——基于1978—2018年玉米主产省的实证[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2021, 42(1): 67-77
ZHANG Qi, ZHU Man-de, Liu Chao. Biased technological change and transformation of China’s Grain growth path: An empirical case study of corn production provinces from 1978 to 2018[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2021, 42(1): 67-77

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-23
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-20
  • 录用日期:2020-12-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-02-01
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