College of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Jilin University
National Social Science Foundation of China (14BJL122).
实现农业现代化是推进乡村振兴高质量发展的必经之路，是破解城乡不平衡不充分发展矛盾，转变农业农村经济发展方式，提升县域经济发展质量的必然选择，对于促进农民持续增收，农业发展质量效益提升和推进县域经济高质量发展等具有重大意义。以吉林省为研究对象，构建吉林省率先实现农业现代化的综合评价指标体系，利用熵值法和GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型，分析2004—2018年吉林省农业现代化发展水平，预测未来发展水平，探讨其农业现代化发展的趋势及差异性。结果表明：吉林省农业现代化发展指数从2004年的0.373 9分上升至2018年的0.676 0分，上涨了80.8%，总体发展水平逐渐提升；各地区农业现代化发展水平各有差异，中部地区农业现代化发展水平要高于其他地区。从预测分析结果看，吉林省整体农业现代化发展水平2033年达到率先实现阶段，这一时期吉林省农业现代化发展水平得以全面提升。从影响因素来看，各子系统发展水平情况从不同程度上对吉林省及各地区的农业率先实现现代化发展水平存在影响，吉林省农业率先实现现代发展的难点在于如何提升吉林省农业发展质量和效益，各地区如何依托各自农业资源禀赋和区位优势来实现农业高质量发展。鉴于此，提出吉林省整体应以质量和效益为中心加快农业高质量发展；东部地区要促进农业绿色低碳发展；中部地区加快农业科技创新，提升农业发展质量效益；西部地区深化农业现代化经营体系建设的有效对策，进而推进吉林省率先实现农业现代化发展。
Achieving agricultural modernization is a necessary way to promote the high-quality development of rural revitalization, which is an inevitable choice to crack the contradiction of unbalanced and insufficient development between urban and rural areas, to transform the development mode of agricultural and rural economy, and to improve the quality of rural economic development. Meanwhile, it is of great significance to promote farmers’ sustainable income, to improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural development, and to promote the high-quality development of rural economy. Based on Jilin Province data from 2004 to 2018, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for Jilin Province to evaluate its leading role in agricultural modernization by the entropy value method and GM(1, 1) gray prediction model, predicted the future development level, and explored the trend and variability of its agricultural modernization development. Results show that the development index of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province rose from 0.373 9 in 2004 to 0.676 0 in 2018, with a rise of 80.8%, and the overall development level gradually improved. The development level of agricultural modernization varied among regions, and the development level of agricultural modernization in central region was higher than those in other regions. From the prediction analysis, this paper finds that the overall agricultural modernization development level of Jilin Province will reach the first realization stage in 2033, and the development level of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province will be improved comprehensively in this period. In terms of influencing factors, the development level of each subsystem affects the development level of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province and each region in different degrees. In addition, the difficulty of Jilin Province’s agricultural modernization development lies in how to improve the quality and efficiency of Jilin Province’s agricultural development, and how each region can rely on its agricultural resource endowment and location advantages to achieve high-quality agricultural development. In summary, this paper provides some policy suggestions for Jilin Province to take the lead in modernizing agricultural development: 1) the Government should accelerate provincial high-quality agricultural development with a focus on quality and efficiency; 2) eastern region should promote green and low-carbon agricultural development; 3) central region should accelerate agricultural science and technology innovation to enhance the quality and efficiency of agricultural development; and 4) western region can deepen the construction of modernized agricultural management system as an effective countermeasure.