School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology
Key Projects of National Social Science Foundation of China (16ARK001); Key project of Beijing Social Science Foundation (19YJA004).
提高农业转移人口的进城落户意愿是推动户籍人口城镇化发展的重要途径。然而，当下各地农业转移人口进城落户积极性不高，提升户籍人口城镇化率并不乐观。基于推拉理论，利用中国流动人口动态监测调查数据（CMDS），采用二元 Logit 模型与中介效应模型，分析土地资源禀赋对农业转移人口进城落户意愿的影响，探讨两者间的作用机制。结果表明，农业转移人口进城落户意愿总体较低，占比为48.91%，农业转移人口拥有承包地与宅基地的比例分别为61.40%和71.71%。土地资源禀赋显著抑制了农业转移人口的进城落户意愿，农业转移人口的身份认同、社会交往状况在土地资源禀赋影响进城落户意愿的过程中发挥着中介效应，社会保障状况发挥着显著的负向调节效应。进一步研究发现，土地流转将会提高农业转移人口的进城落户意愿。因此，一方面要加快农村土地制度改革与农民土地权益保障机制设计，消除阻碍农业转移人口进城落户的体制障碍；另一方面也要通过土地为农业转移人口留条退路，增强社会结构的弹性，维护社会稳定。
Increasing the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities is an important way to promote the urbanization development of the registered population. However, the current enthusiasm of migrant workers to settle down in cities is not very high and it is not optimistic to improve the urbanization rate of the registered population. Based on the dynamic monitoring survey data of the national floating population (CMDS) and the push-pull theory, this paper investigated the influencing mechanism of land resource endowment on the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities by the binary Logit model and the mediating effect model. Results show that: the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities is low, accounting for only 48.91%. The proportions of migrant workers owning contracted land and homestead are 61.40% and 71.71%, respectively. The land resource endowment significantly inhibits the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities. The identity and social interaction have significant impacts and the social security plays a significant negative regulating role. In addition, this research also finds that land transfer can increase the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities. Therefore, this paper provides the following policy suggestions: to remove the institutional obstacles for migrant workers to settle down in cities and to create a way out for migrant workers through land transfer to enhance the flexibility of China’s social structure and to maintain social stability.