气候变化及农户适应性行为对大豆播种面积的影响
作者:
作者单位:

1.沈阳农业大学经济管理学院;2.葫芦岛市气象局

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(71573179;71973100);辽宁省社科规划基金重点项目(L17AGL009)


Effects of climate change and farmers’ adaptive behaviors on soybean planting acreage
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang;2.College of Economics and Management,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang;3.Huludao Meteorological Bureau,Huludao

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (71573179; 71973100); Key Projects of Liaoning Social Science Planning Fund (L17AGL009)

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    摘要:

    气候变化通过改变环境禀赋影响作物间的比较优势。在2019年中央“一号文件”提出“大豆振兴计划”背景下,农户会根据气候变化情况调整种植结构还是调整生产资料投入?如何影响大豆播种面积?其作用机理是什么?本文基于1998—2017年3 560份地级市数据,运用动态面板差分广义矩模型(DIF-GMM),考察了气候变化对大豆播种面积占比的影响。研究发现:日照、气温和降水均会影响大豆播种面积占比,进一步作用机制分析发现,气候变化主要是通过影响大豆单位面积产量,进而影响其播种面积占比。农户的适应性行为在气候变化对大豆播种面积占比的影响中起调节作用,其中,灌溉、地膜和化肥在气温对大豆播种面积占比的影响具有正向调节作用,调节降水变化的要素主要是灌溉。同时,进口量、相对收益以及生产成本也是影响大豆播种面积占比变化的重要因素。在此基础上,本文还运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对未来十年气候变化及农户适应性行为对大豆播种面积占比的动态影响路径和影响程度进行了预测分析,发现化肥和农药施用量可在短期内缓解气候变化对大豆播种面积占比的影响,而日照、降水、灌溉和地膜将对大豆播种面积占比具有长期持续冲击。

    Abstract:

    Climate change affects the comparative advantage of crops by changing the environmental endowment. In the context of the “soybean revitalization plan” proposed by the “No. 1 document” of the Central Government in 2019, will farmers adjust the planting structure or the input of means of production according to climate? How will it affect soybean planting acreage? What is the mechanism of reactions? Based on 3 560 samples of 178 cities from 1998 to 2017, this paper investigated the effects of climate change on soybean planting acreage by the Dynamic Panel Differential Generalized Moment Model (DIF-GMM). Results show that sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation affect the proportion of soybean planting acreage. Further analysis of the mechanism shows that climate change mainly affects the proportion of soybean planting acreage by affecting soybean yield per unit area. Farmers’ adaptive behaviors play a regulatory role in the impact of climate change on the proportion of soybean acreage. Among them, irrigation, plastic film, and chemical fertilizer have some positive regulatory effects on the impact of temperature on soybean acreage, and irrigation is the main factor to adjust the change of precipitation. At the same time, the import volume, relative income, and production costs are also the important factors affecting the proportion of soybean planting acreage. On this basis, this paper also uses the Panel Vector Autoregressive Model (PVAR) to predict the path and the extent of the dynamic impact of climate change and farmers’ adaptive behaviors on the proportion of soybean acreage in the next decade. Results show that in the short term, the amount of chemical fertilizer and plastic film will affect the proportion of soybean acreage through the adjustment of climate change. Sunshine duration, precipitation, irrigation and the use of plastic film will have a long-term impact on the proportion of soybean acreage.

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引用本文

张雪,周密,张丽敏. 气候变化及农户适应性行为对大豆播种面积的影响[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2021, 42(1): 153-164
ZHANG Xue, ZHOU Mi, ZHANG Li-min. Effects of climate change and farmers’ adaptive behaviors on soybean planting acreage[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2021, 42(1): 153-164

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  • 收稿日期:2020-07-03
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-30
  • 录用日期:2021-01-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-02-01
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