中国市域生猪生产时空演变特征及影响因素
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东北师范大学地理科学学院

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL108);国家自然科学基金项目(41001107)


The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of China’s hog industry
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School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University

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National Social Science Foundation of China (15BJL108); National Natural Science Foundation of China (41001107)

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    摘要:

    消费需求变化、可持续发展及中美贸易摩擦等背景下,探索我国生猪生产的时空演变特征、驱动机制和空间布局优化策略,对稳定生猪市场供给、促进生猪产业可持续发展、提升农业综合竞争力具有重要意义。本文选取2000、2008和2017年3期截面数据,采用标准差椭圆、探索性空间数据分析以及分位数回归等方法探索中国市域生猪生产时空演变特征及影响因素,研究表明:1)2000—2017年中国生猪出栏密度以“胡焕庸线”为界呈现西低东高的空间格局。四川盆地、湘江流域、黄淮海平原等粮食主产区和哈大沿线、珠江流域下游等经济较发达区为生猪生产高值区。2)生猪生产时空格局受区域本底因素和内外部驱动因素综合作用。不同生猪出栏水平的影响因素、各因素对不同生猪出栏水平的影响强度及作用方向存在差异。3)中国地域辽阔,各地区资源禀赋、社会经济发展水平和面临的环境压力等不同,呈现出不同的生猪生产发展水平和趋势,应有针对性的采取差异化的发展策略。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of consumer demand changes, sustainable development, and Sino-US trade friction, it is very important to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of hog production as well as its driving mechanism and spatial optimization strategies in China to stabilize the supply of pork, to promote the sustainable development of hog industry, and to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of agriculture. Based on a cross-sectional data of 2000, 2008 and 2017, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of China’s hog production by using the standard deviation ellipse, the exploratory spatial data analysis, and the quantile regression method. Results demonstrate that: 1) the “Hu Huanyong Line” is an essential division line in depicting the spatial pattern of the density of hog slaughterhouses in China. The density of hog slaughterhouses in the southeast of Hu Line is higher than that in the northwest. High-value areas of hog production are mainly distributed in major grain-producing areas such as the Sichuan Basin, Xiangjiang River Basin and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, as well as developed areas such as the lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin and Harbin-Dalian megalopolis; 2) the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of hog production were resulted from the comprehensive effects of regional basic conditions, internal and external driving factors. The influencing factors had different directions and intensities on the different levels of hog slaughterhouses; and 3) different regions in China present a different development trends of hog production because of the different resource endowments, social and economic development levels, and environmental pressures. Therefore, they should adopt differentiated development strategies.

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王如如,房艳刚,刘建志. 中国市域生猪生产时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2020, 41(5): 852-862
wangruru, fangyangang, liujianzhi. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of China’s hog industry[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2020, 41(5): 852-862

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-26
  • 最后修改日期:2020-09-04
  • 录用日期:2020-09-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-10-10
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