2035年中国农业现代化前景展望
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清华大学公共管理学院 / 中国农村研究院,中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,清华大学公共管理学院 / 中国农村研究院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71573151);国家社会科学基金项目(18VSJ021);清华大学中国农村研究院重点课题(CIRS2017-11)


Prospects for China’s agricultural modernization in 2035
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Public Policy and Management China Institute for Rural Studies,Tsinghua University,Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,China Academy of Agricultural Sciences,School of Public Policy and Management China Institute for Rural Studies,Tsinghua University

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (71573151); National Social Science Foundation of China (18VSJ021); Foundation of China Rural Institute for Rural Studies at Tsinghua University (CIRS2017-11).

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    摘要:

    全面实现现代化是当前我国农业发展的一项重要任务。党的十九大报告首次提出实施乡村振兴战略,这是新时代农业工作的总纲领和中心任务,也是推动农业现代化发展的重大行动。立足于当前我国农业发展的现实状况,剖析农业现代化推进的驱动因素,在此基础上对2035年农业现代化进行了前瞻性的预判分析。研究结果表明,当前我国在生产、消费、产业、科技、贸易等几个方面均具有较好的制度环境和发展环境,这为我国农业现代化的实现提供了良好的基础。通过预测分析表明,到2035年我国将发展成为世界农业生产和消费大国、农业产业化强国、农产品贸易大国、农业科技领军强国,但是,在消费结构、质量要求、产业发展、业态创新、生产方式、服务功能、科技水平、人员结构等诸多方面仍面临着巨大的挑战。因此,在实现农业现代化的道路上,未来仍需继续推进农业供给侧结构性改革、转变农业生产经营方式、提升农业对外开放层次和水平并推动城乡融合发展。

    Abstract:

    It is an important task to realize agricultural modernization in China. The strategy of rural revitalization, raised in the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, is the general strategy and the central task of agricultural development in the new era and also an important action to promote the development of agricultural modernization. Based on the current situation of China’s agricultural development, this paper analyzed the driving factors of agricultural modernization and made a forward-looking prediction and analysis of agricultural modernization in 2035. Results show that China has a good institutional and developing environment in terms of production, consumption, industry, technology and trade, which provide a good basis for the realization of agricultural modernization in China. The forecast shows that China will become a major country in terms of agricultural production and consumption, agricultural industrialization, agricultural trade and agricultural science in the world by 2035. However, there are still enormous challenges such as consumption structure, quality requirements, industrial development, business innovation, production model, service function, level of science and technology, personnel structure, and others. Therefore, China still needs to continue to promote structural reform of agricultural supply side, to change the mode of agricultural production and operation, to enhance the external agricultural sector in the future, and to promote the integration of urban and rural development on the road to agricultural modernization.

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引用本文

王亚华,臧良震,苏毅清. 2035年中国农业现代化前景展望[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2020, 41(1): 16-23
WANG Ya-hua, ZANG Liang-zhen, SU Yi-qing. Prospects for China’s agricultural modernization in 2035[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2020, 41(1): 16-23

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-02
  • 最后修改日期:2019-11-20
  • 录用日期:2019-11-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-02-19
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