合作社信贷约束:需求型还是供给型?——基于双变量Probit模型的分析
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中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院,中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金专项项目(18VSJ099);北京市社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDL21)


Cooperative credit constraints: Demand type or supply type?—Based on the bivariate Probit model
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School of agriculture and rural development,Renmin university of China,Beijing,100872,School of agriculture and rural development,Renmin university of China,Beijing,100872,School of agriculture and rural development,Renmin university of China,Beijing,100872,School of agriculture and rural development,Renmin university of China,Beijing,100872

Fund Project:

Special Projects of National Social Science Foundation of China (18VSJ099); Major Projects of Social Science Foundation of Beijing (18ZDL21).

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    摘要:

    信贷支持是合作社开展农业生产经营活动的必要保障之一,然而我国合作社在发展过程中普遍存在资金短缺、信贷困难等问题。基于信贷供需理论和信贷约束识别机制,以合作社为研究对象,运用需求可识别双变量Probit联立模型,分析我国合作社信贷约束现状与主要信贷约束类型,探讨影响合作社信贷需求与信贷供给的主要因素。结果表明,我国合作社资金缺口仍旧较大,31.06%的合作社自有资金不能满足农业生产经营需求。我国合作社信贷约束为需求型与供给型并存,60.13%受到供给型信贷约束,39.87%受到需求型信贷约束,表现为以供给型信贷约束为主。贷款条件苛刻和交易成本约束分别是合作社受到供给型约束和需求型约束的主要原因。合作社信贷需求对信贷供给具有显著正向影响,需求型信贷约束与供给型信贷约束的影响因素不同。单独影响合作社正规信贷需求的主要因素有:合作社荣誉、注册品牌、风险偏好类型、政策性农业保险;单独影响合作社正规信贷供给的主要因素有:专职会计、理事长管理经验、行政职位;同时影响合作社信贷需求与信贷供给的因素有:固定资产、理事长性别、理事长政治面貌、指导意见支持、金融机构距离、地区虚拟变量。因此,提出适度放宽贷款条件,简化信贷手续流程;完善合作社制度建设,提高理事长金融素养;加大合作社政策扶持力度等建议。

    Abstract:

    Credit support is one of the necessary guarantee measures for cooperatives to carry out agricultural production and management activities. However, there are many problems such as capital shortage and credit difficulty in the development of cooperatives in China. Based on the credit supply and demand theory and cooperative credit constraint identification mechanism, this paper takes cooperative as the research object and applies the demand identifiable bivariate Probit model to analyze the current situation of cooperative credit constraint and main types of credit constraint in China, and discusses the main factors affecting cooperative credit demand and credit supply. Results show that the fund gap of China’s cooperatives is still large, 31.06% of the cooperatives cannot meet their needs of agricultural production and operation with their own capitals. The cooperative credit constraint of China coexists with the demand type and the supply type, 60.13% is restricted by supply-oriented credit, and 39.87% by demand-oriented credit, which is mainly manifested by supply-oriented credit constraint. Harsh loan conditions and transaction cost constraints are the main reasons for supply constraints and demand constraints respectively. Cooperative credit demand has a significant positive impact on credit supply, and the influencing factors of demand credit constraint and supply credit constraint are different. The main factors that only affect the credit demand of cooperatives include the honor of cooperatives, registered brands, risk preference type and policy-based agricultural insurance. The main factors that only affect the credit supply of cooperatives are: the availability of full-time accountant and the management experience of the chairman and managing team. The main factors that affect both cooperative credit demand and credit supply are: the fixed assets, the gender of the director, the political status of the chairman, the guidance support, the financial institution distance, and the regional dummy variables. Therefore, this paper suggests to moderately relax the loan conditions, to simplify the credit application procedure, to improve the construction of the cooperative system, to increase the financial literacy level of the chairman, and to increase the policy support for cooperatives.

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王若男,杨慧莲,韩旭东,郑风田. 合作社信贷约束:需求型还是供给型?——基于双变量Probit模型的分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2019, 40(5): 774-784
WANG Ruo-nan, YANG Hui-lian, HAN Xun-dong, ZHENG Feng-tian. Cooperative credit constraints: Demand type or supply type?—Based on the bivariate Probit model[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2019, 40(5): 774-784

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-27
  • 最后修改日期:2019-07-04
  • 录用日期:2019-07-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-25
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