文章摘要
全球大豆贸易网络演化特征与政策启示
Evolution characteristics and policy implications of the global soybean trade network
投稿时间:2019-03-06  最后修改时间:2019-05-11
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2019.0050
中文关键词: 社会网络  贸易结构  贸易地位  贸易关系  网络演化  大豆
英文关键词: social network  trade structure  trade status  trade relationship  network evolution  soybean
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41871109);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2019-06)
作者单位E-mail
卢昱嘉 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 13259088787@163.com 
陈秧分 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 chenyangfen@caas.cn 
韩一军 中国农业大学经济管理学院 hyjcau@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      大豆是我国进口贸易依存度较高的农产品之一,作为大豆的下游加工品,豆油和豆粕的贸易状况对大豆供求结构也存在显著影响,分析全球大豆及其加工品的贸易网络演化特征,对于贸易摩擦背景下的大豆稳定供应具有重要意义。本文选择2002年和2017年全球大豆、豆油、豆粕进口量前五十位国家的贸易数据,分别构建无权贸易网络和加权贸易网络,对总体网络特征、国别关系特征和国别地位特征进行分析。结果显示:全球大豆、豆油、豆粕贸易规模逐渐扩大,贸易密集性和聚集程度不断增强,出口较进口更为集中,核心国在网络中占有重要地位并一定程度掌控贸易流向。随着大豆国际贸易发展,网络结构趋于均衡,更多国家参与到大豆贸易中来。在中美贸易摩擦与高进口依存度背景下,我国应立足大豆的基本供求特征,通过积极开发大豆贸易市场、寻求豆油和豆粕的替代品、推进我国大豆期货市场国际化等手段,扭转进口集聚导致的被动地位,构建我国为主导地位的大豆供应体系。
英文摘要:
      Soybean is one of the agricultural products with high dependence on imports in China. As downstream processed products of soybean, the trade status of soybean oil and soybean meal also has a significant impact on the supply and demand structure of soybean. To analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network of soybean and processed products is of great significance for the stable supply of soybean under the background of trade friction. Based on the trade data of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal from the top 50 countries in 2002 and 2017, this paper built a non-weighted trade network and a weighted trade network to analyze the characteristics of the global soybean trade network, country relationship and country status. Results show that the global trade scales of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal are gradually expanding, the trade density and the degree of trade aggregation are increasing, and exports are more concentrated than imports. The core countries occupy an important position in the network and control the trade flow to a certain extent. With the development of international soybean trade, the network structure tends to be balanced, and more countries are involved in soybean trade. Under the background of China-US trade friction and high import dependence, China should actively expand the soybean trade market, seek alternatives to soybean oil and soybean meal and promote the internationalization of China’s soybean futures market to reverse the passive status caused by import agglomeration and to construct China’s leading soybean supply system.
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