文章摘要
中国农业经济发展的区域差异、时空格局演变及其驱动机制分析
The regional differences, the evolution of spatial-temporal patterns and the driving mechanism of agricultural economic development in China
投稿时间:2019-02-28  最后修改时间:2019-06-04
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2019.0053
中文关键词: 农业经济  区域差异  时空格局演变  影响因素  中国
英文关键词: agricultural economy  regional differences  spatial-temporal pattern evolution  driving mechanism  China
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(17YJA790084);国家自然科学基金项目(41761110)
作者单位E-mail
姚成胜 南昌大学 中国中部经济社会发展研究中心 yaochengsheng@163.com 
朱伟华 南昌大学 经济管理学院 1192113748@qq.com 
黄琳 江西师范大学外国语学院 huanglin0823@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      构建农业经济发展评价指标体系,分析了2000—2016年我国及其东、中、西三大区域的农业经济发展水平,运用泰尔指数、探索性空间分析、面板回归模型等方法,揭示了我国省域农业经济发展的区域差异、时空格局演变及其驱动机制,研究结果表明:1)2000—2016年中国及其东、中、西三大区域农业经济发展水平大体都可以划分为2000—2011年的持续增长阶段和2012—2016年的基本稳定阶段,并呈现出由东向西明显递降的特征;2)2000—2016年区域间差异是驱动我国农业经济发展差异的主要原因,但在2007年以后区域内差异逐渐扩大,并于2015年开始成为农业经济发展差异的主要原因;3)中国农业经济发展呈现出明显的空间集聚特征,其空间格局在2000—2008年变化较为复杂,而在2008—2016年基本呈现出由东向西递减的特征;4)经济增长是区域农业经济发展的首要驱动因素,其作用要明显大于工业化和降水量,而城镇化和复种指数则对区域农业经济有一定的负向影响,而且农业经济发展存在明显的空间依赖和外溢,能够产生跨区域的极化效应。
英文摘要:
      By building an agricultural economic development evaluation index system, this paper analyzed the agricultural economic development level of China and its eastern, central and western regions, from 2000 to 2016. In addition, by applying the Thiel index, the exploratory spatial data analysis and panel regression model, this paper also explored the provincial regional differences, the spatial-temporal evolution patterns and the driving mechanism of agricultural economic development in China. Results showed that: 1) from 2000 to 2016, the levels of agricultural economic development in China and in the eastern region, the central region, and the western region could be roughly divided into the period of sustained growth from 2000 to 2011 and the basic stabilization phase from 2012 to 2016, and showing an obvious descending trend from the east to the west; 2) during the study period, the inter-regional gap was the main reason in driving the development of China’s agricultural economy. However, after 2007, the intraregional gap had gradually expanded, and in 2015, it had become the main reason for the regional differences; 3) China’s agricultural economic development had obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, and its spatial pattern was more complicated from 2000 to 2008, while from 2008 to 2016, it basically showed a relatively stable diminishing trend from the east to the west; and 4) economic growth was the primary driving factor for regional agricultural economic development and it played a greater role than industrialization and precipitation. While urbanization and multiple cropping index had certain negative impacts on regional agricultural economy. Additionally, agricultural economic development had obvious spatial dependences and spillover effects, which could produce polarization across regions.
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