文章摘要
马铃薯主粮化背景下农户福利效应的影响因素分析
Influencing factors of potato farmers’ welfare under the background of developing potato as a staple food
投稿时间:2018-12-16  最后修改时间:2019-04-11
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2019.0030
中文关键词: 马铃薯  生产价格  销售价格  福利效应  TVP-SV-VAR模型
英文关键词: potato  production price  retail price  welfare effect  TVP-SV-VAR model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71473253);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2016-06);清华大学农村研究博士论文奖学金项目(201719)。
作者单位E-mail
李京栋 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所 北京 87257410@qq.com 
李先德 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所 北京 E-mail: gjmy6160@caas.cn 
王士海 山东农业大学 经济管理学院 山东 泰安 worldocean@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      测算了2001—2015年马铃薯价格波动的农户生产福利效应、消费福利效应和总福利效应,并构建TVP-SV-VAR模型来探究马铃薯种植农户福利效应的影响因素。研究表明,马铃薯生产价格、产量对农户生产福利的影响有结构性突变,货币流动性和马铃薯贸易对农户生产福利产生正影响,农产品期货和人均可支配收入对农户生产福利产生负影响;货币流动性对农户消费福利的影响具有结构性突变,马铃薯产量、人均消费支出和农产品期货对农户消费福利表现为正影响,马铃薯销售价格和马铃薯贸易对农户消费福利产生负影响;马铃薯产量、货币流动性、农产品期货及贸易对农户总福利影响的时变性显著,生产价格、产量和销售价格对农户总福利的影响都具有显著的结构性突变,货币流动性、人均消费支出和马铃薯贸易对农户总福利表现为正影响,人均可支配收入、农产品期货对农户总福利表现为负影响。因此,提出加大产业扶植力度,完善信息平台建设,发展马铃薯期货等政策建议。
英文摘要:
      Based on potato price data from 2001 to 2015, this paper calculated potato farmers’ production welfare change, consumption welfare change, and the total welfare change resulted from potato price fluctuations by a TVP-SV-VAR model and analyzed the influencing factors. Results show that the influences of potato farm gate price and yield on production welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity and potato trade have significant positive impacts on production welfare. Agricultural futures trading and per-capita disposable income have some negative impacts on production welfare. The influence of the currency circulation velocity on consumption welfare has some structural variations. Potato yield, per-capita consumption expenditure and agricultural futures trading have some positive impacts on farmers’ consumption welfare. While potato retail price and potato trade have some negative impacts on farmers’ consumption welfare. The effects of potato yield, currency circulation velocity, potato trade, and agricultural futures trading on farmers’ total welfare displayed some significant time-varying characteristics. The effect of potato farm gate price, yield and retail price on farmers’ total welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity, per-capita consumption expenditure, and potato trade have positive impacts on farmers’ total welfare. The per-capita disposable income and agricultural futures trading have negative impacts on farmers’ total welfare. Therefore, this paper provides the following policy suggestions: to increase financial support of agricultural industrialization, to improve the construction of information platform, and to develop potato futures.
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