文章摘要
我国粮食生产重心变迁及其影响因素研究
The evolution path of China’s grain production base and the influencing factors
投稿时间:2018-07-22  最后修改时间:2018-10-22
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0110
中文关键词: 粮食生产  生产格局  重心演变  固定效应模型  影响因素
英文关键词: grain production  production pattern  shifting of production base  fixed effect model  influencing factors
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71673274),中国农业科学院科技创新工程创新团队项目(ASTIP-IAED-2018-06)
作者单位E-mail
杨宗辉 中国农业科学院 zhyang94@163.com 
李金锴 中国农业科学院 1258856627@qq.com 
韩晨雪 中国农业科学院 13720079768@163.com 
刘合光 中国农业科学院 liuheguang@caas.cn 
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中文摘要:
      粮食问题是关乎我国国计民生的重大问题,粮食生产格局的变化对于粮食供需平衡及粮食安全问题有潜在的影响。基于1997—2016年我国31个省级行政区划的面板数据,运用重心模型分析了我国粮食生产重心的具体演变过程。研究发现,1997-2016年我国粮食生产重心向东北方向转移,总的转移距离为172.56 km,重心所在地大部分集中于河南省的中部地区。进一步运用固定效应模型估计了影响我国粮食生产重心变迁的因素,估计结果显示,人均耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、机械化、粮食作物播种比例、复种指数均对粮食生产有着显著的正向影响,是驱使粮食生产重心北移的因素。基于此,建议从保护耕地数量与质量、加大农业生产投入与科技投入、探索多样化农业补贴形式、构建区域粮食供需协调机制等方面做好粮食安全保障工作。
英文摘要:
      Grain security is a critical issue related to our national economy and people’s livelihood and the change of grain production pattern has a potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand. Based on a provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China 1997 to 2016, this paper analyzed the evolution path of China’s grain production base by the barycenter model. Results show that: in the past 20 years (1997—2016), the grain production base of China has shifted to the northeast by about 172.56 km, and the base now mainly concentrates in the central region of Henan Province. In addition, this paper tried to identify the influencing factors by a fixed effect model. Estimation results indicate that per capita cultivated land area, effective irrigation area, fertilizer application, mechanization, grain crop sowing ratio and replanting index have significant positive influences on grain yield, and these factors drive the grain production base to move the northern region. Based on the above results, to ensure grain security in China, this paper suggests to protect the quantity and quality of the cultivated land, to increase agricultural input and technological input, to explore diversified agricultural subsidies, and to construct the coordination mechanism of regional grain supply and demand.
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