文章摘要
“粮安天下”: 中国大米供求变化预测
Grain security: projections for rice supply and demand in China
投稿时间:2018-05-13  最后修改时间:2018-09-21
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0106
中文关键词: 粮食安全  大米  供求  预测  局部均衡  情景模拟
英文关键词: grain security  rice industry  supply and demand  projection  partial equilibrium  scenario simulation
基金项目:国家水稻产业技术体系专项经费资助(CARS-01-10B);浙江大学文科专项课题“中国稻米产业经济问题:生产格局、国际贸易与价格变化”
作者单位E-mail
杨万江 浙江大学中国农村发展研究院 wjyang@zju.edu.cn 
刘琦 浙江大学中国农村发展研究院 qi-liu@zju.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      在中国农业生产成本快速上升和大米进口量急剧增加的背景下,分析和研判国内稻米供给与需求的未来趋势具有重要意义。本文利用1978—2015年全国层面数据,在厘清大米供需变化历程的基础上,基于局部均衡理论,采用广义矩估计法考察了影响中国大米供需的因素;并预测2016—2030年“基准情景”、“经济增长情景”和“成本情景”下的大米供需变化趋势。研究表明:(1)上一期收获面积和农户出售价格会显著增加大米收获面积,而种植成本则会明显减少收获面积;居民的饮食偏好依然是影响大米消费的主要因素;国际市场价格仅明显刺激大米出口,对进口的影响作用并不明显。(2)在大米进出口格局改变的背景下,未来中国大米总产量不断下降,大米国内消费量也不断下降,自给率逐年下降;若采取降低生产成本的措施,能够有效激发农民生产积极性,有助于提高我国大米自给率。未来应该着重降低生产成本,确保生产能力和优化生产结构,不断提升大米国际竞争力,保障国家粮食安全。
英文摘要:
      Under the background of rapid increase in agricultural production cost and sharp increase in rice imports, it is of great significance to analyze and predict the future trends of domestic rice supply and demand. According to the national data from 1978 to 2015, this paper examined the factors affecting the supply and demand of China’s rice based on the partial equilibrium theory and the generalized matrix estimation method after analyzing the history of rice supply and demand. Furthermore, this paper forecasted the trends of supply and demand of rice from 2016 to 2030 with base line scenario, economic growth scenario and cost scenario. Results show that: 1) previous year harvest area and farm gate price increase will significantly increase rice harvest area, while production cost will significantly reduce it. In addition, dietary preference keeps rice on the top of the grain consumption list; 2) the international market price only significantly affect rice exports and has little influence on rice imports; and 3) in the content of changing rice import and export patterns, domestic consumption of rice will fall down, while China’s rice supplement and rice self-sufficiently rates keep declining year by year. Reducing rice production cost can effectively stimulate farmers’ enthusiasm and raise rice self-sufficiency rate. In the future, this paper suggests to reduce production costs, to ensure production capacity, to optimize production structure, and continuously to improve the competitiveness of rice industry in China.
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