文章摘要
玉米价格变动对主产区农民福利的波及效应
Influences of corn price fluctuations on farmers’ welfare in main corn production areas
投稿时间:2018-01-05  修订日期:2018-03-09
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0021
中文关键词: 玉米价格  玉米主产区  农民福利  路径分析法  系统GMM
英文关键词: corn price  main corn production area  farmers’ welfare  path analysis  system GMM model
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300210);国家自然科学基金项目(71773121);现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2018)
作者单位E-mail
张哲晰 中国农业大学经济管理学院 cauzzx1991@cau.edu.cn 
穆月英 中国农业大学经济管理学院 yueyingmu@cau.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      近年来我国玉米市场价格发生起伏波动,这对玉米生产者如何产生影响成为各界关注的热门话题。基于福利经济学补偿原则,利用2001—2015我国玉米主产省面板数据,运用路径分析法与系统GMM方法,对纳入农民主观能动性与客观环境的玉米供给和需求模型进行估计,并在此基础上测算玉米价格波动对主产区农民生产、消费及总福利的影响。结果表明,玉米价格变动与农民生产福利呈同方向变动,与农民消费福利呈反方向变动,伴随供给侧结构性改革的不断推进,主产省农民福利回落明显。农民的玉米生产福利和消费福利表现出明显的区域差异性,而各产区差异性比较优势会对农民种植积极性产生不同影响。此外,除农业政策等因素外,种植结构和城镇化水平是影响玉米价格的重要因素;全要素生产率反映的科技进步对玉米产量的作用并不突出。据此,提出继续加强对粮食价格的宏观调控、完善农业补贴政策;积极培育新型职业农民、强化主产区生产配套设施与社会保障服务建设;引导玉米种植结构调整与加工合理布局、研发和推广高新技术等建议
英文摘要:
      In recent years, China’s corn price fluctuated often and had significant impacts on farmers’ welfare. Based on the compensation principle of welfare economics and a panel data of 20 main corn production provinces in China from 2001 to 2015, and applying the path analysis and the system GMM estimation methods, this paper analyzed the corn supply and demand model of farmers’ subjective initiative and the objective environment to estimate the impact of corn price fluctuation on farmers’ production, consumption and total welfare in the main production areas. Results show that: the change of corn price is in the same direction with farmers’ production welfare and in the opposite direction with farmers’ consumption welfare. Along with the agricultural supply-side structural reform advancement, the welfare of farmers in main production provinces drops significantly with obvious differences among different provinces. The different comparative advantages of different provinces have important but distinct impacts on farmers’ planting enthusiasm. This research also finds that the planting structure and urbanization level are important factors affecting corn price. The impact of total factor productivity on corn production is not prominent. Based on the above results, this paper proposes the following policy suggestions: strengthening the macro-control of food prices and improving agricultural subsidy policy, actively cultivating new-type professional farmers, building more production supporting facilities and enhancing social security services in the main production areas, guiding the rational adjustment of corn planting structure and value-added processing, and supporting the development and the promotion of high technology.
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