文章摘要
禽流感风险、空间异质性与中国养禽农户养殖恢复行为研究
Avian influenza risk, spatial heterogeneity and restoration of poultry farmers in China
投稿时间:2017-06-01  修订日期:2017-12-26
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0129
中文关键词: 禽流感  家禽养殖  恢复行为  空间异质性  随机效应Probit模型
英文关键词: Avian Influenza  poultry  recovery behaviors  spatial heterogeneity  the Random Effect Probit model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71573130);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心课题
作者单位E-mail
刘婷婷 南京农业大学经济管理学院 2014206007@njau.edu.cn 
应瑞瑶 南京农业大学经济管理学院 yry@njau.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      家禽养殖是中国农户重要的生计手段,有利于吸收农村家庭剩余劳动力,提高农民福利,然而近年来家禽养殖频频遭受禽流感冲击,损失惨重。基于中国农村固定观察点2004—2012年家禽养殖跟踪数据,根据禽流感发生的地理位置划分为4个类型区域,采用随机效应Probit模型,分析禽流感冲击下4个区域养禽户家禽养殖恢复行为,探讨其空间异质性及其形成原因。结果表明,受到冲击的养禽户中有51.02%在疫情结束后重新恢复家禽养殖。其中,禽流感冲击下疫情发生地家禽产品市场价格上升,该区域86.84%受冲击养禽户在疫情结束后恢复家禽养殖,恢复程度最高;疫情发生地相邻地区域家禽产品市场价格下降,疫情结束后该区域仅有20.82%受冲击养禽户恢复家禽养殖,恢复程度最低。研究表明,疫情结束后4个区域养禽户家禽养殖恢复行为存在明显差异,而养禽户家禽养殖恢复行为与禽流感冲击下养禽户所在区域家禽产品市场价格变动有关。因此,要关注禽流感对养禽户冲击的空间异质性,充分考虑相邻甚至更远区域家禽产品价格变动,扩大政策关注范围,建立农业保险机制,完善价格补偿机制来制定更为精准的灾后扶持补贴政策。
英文摘要:
      Poultry farming, which employs more rural labors and improves farmers’ welfare, is an important means of livelihood for Chinese farmers. However, poultry industry in China is facing the risk of avian influenza, resulting in heavy loss. Based on the data of the observation sites from four different geographic locations with high avian influenza risk in China from 2004 to 2012, and applying the Random Effect Probit model, this paper analyzed the spatial heterogeneity and formation causes of poultry breeding recovery behaviors in four regions under the impact of avian influenza. Result shows that 52.02% of the affected poultry farmers restarted their poultry farming after the avian influenza. Among them, the avian influenza caused the price rise of poultry products in the epidemic region and 86.84% of the affected poultry farmers in this region chose to restart their poultry farming after the avian influenza, with the highest recovery degree. While the market price of poultry products fell in the adjacent regions, and only 20.86% of the affected poultry farmers in the adjacent regions chose to restart their poultry farming after the avian influenza, with the lowest recovery degree. There is a significant difference in the behaviors of poultry breeding in the four regions after the outbreak of the avian influenza, and the recovery behaviors of poultry farmers are related to the market price changes of poultry products in the region which is caused by the epidemic. Therefore, in order to develop a more accurate post disaster support subsidy policy, this paper suggests to pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity of the impacts of avian influenza on poultry households, to give full consideration to the price changes of poultry products in the adjacent regions or even farther regions, to expand the scope of policy attention, to establish agricultural insurance mechanism, and to perfect the mechanism of price compensation.
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