文章摘要
疫病冲击对中国畜产品价格波动的影响
The impacts of disease shocks on the price volatility of China’s livestock products
投稿时间:2020-06-15  修订日期:2020-09-01
DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2020.0080
中文关键词: 疫病冲击  非洲猪瘟  畜产品价格  猪肉价格  TVP-VAR模型
英文关键词: disease shock  African swine fever  livestock product price  pork price  TVP-VAR model
基金项目:中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(161005202001-4-3);国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFD0501105);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2020-01)。
作者单位E-mail
石自忠 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 shiziz1989@163.com 
周慧 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 zhouhui@caas.cn 
胡向东 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 huxiangdong@caas.cn 
摘要点击次数: 45
全文下载次数: 31
中文摘要:
      基于2009年2月—2020年1月中国主要畜产品价格及生猪疫病指数,借助带有随机波动性的TVP-VAR模型,实证研究非洲猪瘟等生猪疫病冲击对畜产品价格波动的时变影响。研究结果表明:非洲猪瘟等生猪疫病冲击对畜产品价格波动存在明显时变影响,且冲击影响持续时间长;疫病冲击更多表现为正向作用,非洲猪瘟对畜产品价格正向冲击影响大,推动畜产品价格全面上涨,但近期推动作用有所放缓;猪肉价格受到的冲击影响大,鸡肉价格次之,牛羊肉价格相对较小;非洲猪瘟与其他生猪疫病对畜产品价格波动的冲击影响无明显贡献差异,须将其他疫病防控置于非洲猪瘟防控同等重要地位。建议完善市场预警机制,增强疫病冲击应对能力;健全政策支持体系,强化市场供给保障水平;充分发挥替代效应,着力缓解市场供需矛盾;多方面多渠道切实降低非洲猪瘟等疫病冲击对畜产品价格波动的影响。
英文摘要:
      Based on China’s major livestock product prices and the swine disease index from February 2009 to January 2020, and applying a TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility, this paper empirically examined the time-varying impacts of the swine diseases including African swine fever on livestock product price volatility. Results show that the impacts of swine diseases including African swine fever on the livestock product price volatility had obvious time-varying effects, and it lasted a long time. Besides, the impacts of disease shocks caused the price of livestock product to rise. Especially, African swine fever had a significant impact on the price of livestock products, leading to the overall price rise of livestock products. However, the impacts of African swine fever on livestock product prices had slowed down recently. Moreover, the impacts of the disease shocks on pork price were significant, followed by that of chicken price. While the impacts on beef and lamb prices were relatively weak. Finally, there was no significant difference in the impacts of African swine fever and other swine diseases on the livestock product price volatility, indicating that the prevention and control of other diseases should be viewed as important as that of African swine fever. In order to reduce the impacts of African swine fever and other swine diseases on the livestock product price volatility, this paper provides the following suggestions: improving the market early warning mechanism to enhance the ability to cope with the disease shock, perfecting the policy support system to strengthen the capacity of the livestock product supply, and giving full play to the substitution effect to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of livestock products.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭